Ashes 2017/18 - Too Close To Call

The Ashes:
Cricket's Greatest Rivalry

The history, the atmosphere, the rivalry and the media hype; It's all there in abundance as we anticipate the latest installment of cricket's greatest rivalry, with opinion split as to where the little urn will belong come January. Since late September the vast majority of media coverage had all but guaranteed an Australian victory on home soil, England's talismanic all-rounder Ben Stokes' hopes of appearing in the series seemingly knocked onto a street outside a Bristol nightclub. The incident was lapped up by an Australian media whose memory of a similar incident with their own David Warner aiming a punch at Joe Root was conspicuous in it's absence, and dare one say that the supersilious Australian attitude came back once again with several predictions of another 5-0 whitewash, regardless of who wears the revered Baggy Green over the next 7 weeks.

The magnificent
Sydney Cricket Ground

How quickly times have changed, with the announcement of the Australian squad leaving many to rescind their earlier predictions, some going so far as to say that the home side have handed the series to England on a silver platter. The reality is that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future success, we don't have to cast our memories too far back when England walked the series in the homeland in 2013 with a score of 3-0 and succumbing in monumental fashion just a few months later Down Under to a second 5-0 whitewash in 3 series on these shores. The bottom line is that once the players get on the field we will get more of an indication of how things will go than by reading anything currently written in the press.

Both sides have their strengths and weaknesses; the captains are the world's top batsmen in the last 18 months and are relatively early on into their captaincies, which promise much. Indeed, this is the first time they will lead their country in an Ashes contest. There is much excitement around their roles, and who will handle the pressure, the media and the occasion the best. Steve Smith has the advantage of being the home captain with a nation behind him, Joe Root has the attitude that nothing will get to him and take his focus off the main event. It all points towards a mouth-watering contest.

The bowling department is one where I believe Australia would have the advantage with an established seam attack led by Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc backed up by the exciting Pat Cummins, however should one of those suffer an injury then doubt will seep in. Both Starc and Cummins have a history of injuries, the latter making his debut back in 2011 but only making his home debut here 6 years later due to a multitude of stress fractures and other ailments. And so that is where England's depth looks a little better. Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad will doubtless go down in history as two of England's greatest, and while the pace may no longer be there the potency certainly is. Between them they have 894 Test match wickets, it is not impossible that they will pass the tally during this Ashes series of one of the greatest fast bowling partnerships in Test cricket; Courtney Walsh and Sir Curtly Ambrose have 924.

1/3: Driving Jamie Overton through the covers.
It was clear from the age of 16 that the
Overton twins would be stars. (2011)

I may be biased but I am delighted to see the selection of Craig Overton in the squad having played several years against him and twin brother Jamie in the Devon Premier League at one of my favourite grounds, Instow in North Devon. Incidentally, also the home of world renowned umpire David Shepherd. Jamie Overton is perhaps a yard or two quicker than Craig, but having suffered his own injuries Craig led the Somerset attack with aplomb, snaring 46 wickets at 22.39 in the County Championship to earn his spot in the touring party. Don't be fooled by the warm-up games, Craig Overton can bat. Of course, club cricket is completely different but one game I'm fortunate to have missed in 2011 saw Craig hit a stunning hundred against us. He will want to contribute more than a few runs should he take part in the series.

I would feel secure placing a bet that Jamie Overton will also represent England at some stage in the next couple of years, having already been picked for an ODI squad without featuring. Chris Woakes will fill the all-rounder role until Stokes arrives and will be a very handy back-up to Broad and Anderson. The Australian pitches will suit his style and together with Ball or Overton (all 6ft 5in of him) give the Australian batsmen plenty to think about during the series. Add Stokes into the mix and England's bowling is a force to be reckoned with and according to the latest reports it is almost a certainty that Stokes will play some part in the series.

2/3: Hitting Jamie Overton for 6,
representing Bovey Tracey v North Devon,
Devon Premier League (2011).

With Jake Ball's ankle showing a decent recovery and George Garton an untested left-arm quick, there appears to be only a little depth to England's seam bowling, the reliance on Moeen Ali to lead the spin attack will be vital to their chances even with Mason Crane encouraging tongues to wag and English cricket to believe they may have a world class leg-spinner in their future. We have seen that hypothesis before though. Whatever happened to Scott Borthwick? It should be noted that Joe Root can send down some useful off-spin but the burdens of captaincy may curtail that thought. I always thought Michael Vaughan should have bowled himself more, perhaps Yorkshire's latest national figurehead will contribute in all facets.

3/3: North Devon players search for the ball
in what is known as the "Adder Pit",
Britain's only venomous snake can be
found in the Gorse. (2011)

Australia's reserve stock has some experience in Jackson Bird; 34 wickets in 8 Tests at 27.47 is not at all bad. But the worry will be what comes after? If one of Starc, Hazlewood or Cummins gets a niggle, Bird comes in. But if two get hurt or can't hit form Australia are vulnerable. Nathan Lyon will continue to twirl away but with Smith nothing more than a very part-time Leg-spinner these days the reliance on Lyon to hold an end up is immense. Stephen O'Keefe's chances are running out, and the selectors appear to have run out of patience with his off-field antics. Should Root, Bairstow, Ali, Woakes and tail-enders like Broad go after Lyon and hit him out of the attack the knock-on effect of an increased workload for Australia's injury-prone pacemen will resonate.

The question marks don't end with the bowling. England's carousel of opening batsmen to replace Andrew Strauss (who retired in 2012!) shows no sign of slowing down or coming to the end of its shift, however Mark Stoneman nailed down the spot alongside Alastair Cook in the warm-up matches with three fifties and a sublime 111 in his four innings. Much will depend on his ability to continue that form. James Vince at three will be vulnerable but he shows considerable promise. What better stage to fulfil that promise than an Ashes opener at The Gabba? Having Gary Ballance at 3 against South Africa was not, in my opinion, a sustainable move. The lack of footwork and susceptibility against good short pitched bowling have been exposed horribly on English pitches, to put him into the fire on fast Australian pitches would be counter-productive given that he bats at 4 for Yorkshire. Headingley, The Gabba is not. If Ballance plays, he should not bat higher than 5 but the selectors look to be in favour of Dawid Malan for that spot.

Australia's selection of Shaun Marsh has been met with widespread derision, yet one thing we know

The historic SCG Members Pavilion

about Australian's is that they are most dangerous when they are written off. Marsh has been recalled to the fold eight times over the course of his stunted Test career, and Usman Khawaja will feel aggrieved to have not featured more heavily since his SCG debut in the 2010/11 Ashes series. David Warner's pre-series comments have fallen flat on both sides, and the Australian's usual press release that they will target England Captain Joe Root have had even less impact than Warner's attempted punch in 2013. Australia, so strong and almost invincible a few days ago, are now finding themselves on the defence before a ball has been bowled.

Matthew Renshaw's omission based on a less than stellar start to the Sheffield Shield season has split opinion among cricket writers. Some say his Test record didn't warrant him being dropped, some imply that you can't afford to risk an Ashes Test to try to get him into form. Both perfectly valid points, but pale into insignificance when the subject of Tim Paine is broached. Currently ousted from the Tasmanian state side by rival keeper Matthew Wade, and with only 4 Test matches behind him (all outside of Australia in 2010), on paper it is a very surprising inclusion. Lest we forget that not so long ago there were plenty calling for his inclusion as the "Best gloveman in Australia". Although Peter Nevill can feel slightly aggrieved to be overlooked, at least we don't have to put up with "Nooiiiiice, Garry!!" through the stump microphones as Wade watches from the pavilion in Hobart.

Sir Ian Botham
Headingley 1981 needs no explanation

The romance of an Ashes series cannot be equalled in any other cricket fixture. Memories of recent classics still resonate; Edgbaston 2005, Adelaide 2006, The Oval 2009, Adelaide 2010, Trent Bridge 2013, Perth 2013 and Trent Bridge 2015. The fire of Flintoff, Hussey's heroism, Broad's Blitz, KP's Double and Johnson's Thunderbolts. They all deserve their place in the annals of Ashes folklore, stories to be passed down through generations of cricket tragics. Hutton, Compton, Bradman, Benaud, Lawry, Chappell, Boycott, McGrath, Warne, Flintoff, Waugh, Botham, Ponting, Gilchrist... The list will continue to grow.

2005: Flintoff's Ashes

Perhaps the most challenging aspect is attempting a prediction. If you had asked me a week ago I would have said Australia would probably win the series 2-1 or 3-1. Three days before the series begins in earnest and taking into account the strengths and obvious weaknesses between the two sides I feel that England have a real chance, and while Australia will still be considered favourites the door is slightly ajar for England to walk through. Remember, Australia were favourites heading into the 2015 series. No-one could forsee England clinching the series with a game in hand, much less seeing Australia dismissed for 60 in 18.3 firey overs without leading wicket-taker James Anderson.

Much will depend on the opening bout at The Gabba beginning this Thursday. Historically not a happy hunting ground for England or any other touring side; Australia are unbeaten in Brisbane Test matches since 1988, when a West Indies side at the height of their power took the spoils. England have not triumphed there since 1986. Records are there to be rewritten, remember England hadn't beaten Australia at Lords for 75 years before Flintoff's heroics in 2009, backed up by Ian Bell, Joe Root and Graeme Swann's feats in 2013. It is not beyond the realms the England can win at The Gabba for the first time in 31 years this week. Either way, a nation will be glued to the coverage, and none of us can wait.

My series prediction:

Australia 1-2 England

2010/11: The last time England won the Ashes in Australia.